Recent Trends in Regional GDP

With the Irish economy again experiencing a period of significant expansion (it is estimated to have grown by 6.7% in 2018) it is important to consider how different Irish are regions doing in this time of growth.  While this was examined for the three Assembly regions (Eastern and Midland, Southern and Northern and Western) in a previous post using Eurostat data, we now have the opportunity to consider economic growth and prosperity, as measured by GDP, for the smaller regions.

Regional GDP data (NUTS3 regions) for 2016, with preliminary figures for 2017 was published in April, so in this post we consider the most recent information, as well as looking back to 2008, and observing the regional patterns of recession and growth in the last decade.  While income data is available at county level (discussed for the Western Region in a previous post) the GDP and GVA data[i] is only available at regional level.  The Western Region, under the WDC’s remit includes the entire West region and three of the five counties in the newly delineated Border region (Louth is now included with the Mid East as discussed here).  Clare is part of the Mid West and unfortunately data for the Mid West has been suppressed in the CSO publication for reasons of confidentiality.  In charts for this post the Mid West and South West (also suppressed) have been combined for the years 2015-2017.

When comparing regions of very different sizes GDP per person is the most useful measure (total GDP and regions share of the national economy will be discussed in the next post on this topic). Figure 1 illustrates the very significant differences in GDP among regions.  In both 2016 and 2017 the lowest per capita GDP was in the Border region (€21,446 in 2016) followed by the Midland[ii] (€23,417 in 2016) and the West (€29,798 in 2016).

 

Figure 1: Regional GDP per person 2016 and 2017 (estimated)

a Data for 2015, 2016 and 2017 suppressed in MW and SW for reasons of confidentiality, b Preliminary

Source: CSO, 2019, County Incomes and Regional GDP, Table 9a, Mid West and South West own calculations based on Table 9 and Table 13, 13a

 

In contrast, the Mid West & South West  had the highest per capita GDP (this is a combined region as data for the two regions was suppressed) at €80,758 in 2016 which is almost four times greater than that in the Border region.  There are some unusual factors underlying this growth which are discussed in detail here.  Dublin, when considered alone had the highest GDP per person at (€81,184) in 2016 (though not in 2017) but it is shown here with the Mid East as much of the Dublin GDP is produced by workers living the Mid East (discussed here) and so considering the two region’s GDP together, when examining the per capita data gives a more realistic picture.  The very high levels of GDP per person in these regions (with large populations and significant economic output) bring GDP person in the State was €57,650 in 2016.

While 2017 figures are preliminary it is nonetheless interesting to look more closely at the growth rates most recent two years for which data is available.  According to this measure (GDP at current market prices) the economy of the state grew by 4.1% between 2015 and 2016, and 7.6% between 2016 and 2017.  Interestingly, the South East showed the highest annual growth (17.7%) between 2015 and 2016 with the Mid East next highest (12.8%) followed by Dublin at 9.7%.  The economy of the Border region grew by 6% but regional GDP decreased in the West by 6.1% between 2015 and 2016 and by 3.7% in the Midland region.  Surprisingly, as the South West was one of the regions with the most significant growth in 2015 the Mid West & South West economy contracted in that year by 3.6%.  The economy in all regions  grew in 2017 (except the Midland which contracted by 0.7% in the year and by 4.3% in total since 2015) with the biggest growth in Dublin (12.6%).  The West also showed a year on year recovery (5.3%) but still is estimated to have a smaller economy in 2017 than 2015 (by 1.1%).

 

Figure 2: Percentage change in Regional GDP between 2015 and 2017

b preliminary figure; MW & SW, own calculations

Source: CSO, 2019, Table 9   GVA per Region at Current Market Prices (GDP), 2008 to 2017

 

Looking back over a longer period, the very significant differences in patterns of growth are evident (Figure 3).  Dublin, which was always the largest economy, has grown more rapidly than other regions since 2012, while the Mid West & South West combined show the impact of the very significant level shift in GDP which occurred in 2015 (and is discussed in more detail in this post Leprechauns in Invisible Regions: Regional GVA (GDP) in 2015)

Figure 3: GDP per person in NUTS 3 regions 2008-2017

a Data for 2015, 2016 and 2017 suppressed for reasons of confidentiality, b Preliminary

Source: CSO, 2019, County Incomes and Regional GDP, Table 9a, Mid West and South West own calculations based on Table 9 and Tables 12,13, 13a

 

Other Regions had more modest growth, but both the South East and the Mid East have recovered well since the recession.  This is shown more clearly in Figure 4.  The economy of the Border region is estimated to be 0.8% smaller in 2017 than 2018 and the Midland region is 0.4% smaller. The economy of the West region grew modestly (10.6%) during the ten year period.  These regions clearly have not benefited from the recovery and growth in economic activity experienced in other regions.  The economies of the Mid West and South West combined have more than doubled in size (118% growth) between 2008 and 2017, while the Dublin economy grew by more than 50%.

Figure 4: Growth and decline in regional economies GDP since 2008.

Source: CSO, 2019, CSO, 2019, County Incomes and Regional GDP, Table 9 GVA per region at current market prices (GDP) 2008-2017, own calculations

 

Given the very different growth rates in the regional economies, there has been significant divergence among regions since 2008 and in particular since 2012.  The divergence is shown clearly over time when looking at how each of the region compares to the State average.  This is done using an Index with the State in each year equal to 100 (Figure 5).  In 2008 only two regions (Dublin and the South West) were above the state average, and the difference between the highest (Dublin) and the lowest (Border) was 85 points.  By 2017 Dublin and the combined region (Mid West and South West) were above the state average, and the other regions remained below, with the difference between the highest (again Dublin) and the lowest, (the Border) now 111 points.  By 2017 the Border, (36.1%) and the Midland region (37.5%), were significantly lower than the state average, while GDP per person in the Dublin region is 47% more than the state average.  The West, which has the strong economic driver of Galway, had a GDP per person of 72.5% of the state average in 2008 and 50.6% by 2017.

Figure 5: Index of GVA per person (Basic Prices) for each region 2008-2017, State=100

Source: CSO, 2019, County Incomes and Regional GDP, Table 10, MW & SW own calculations.

 

Along with this divergence in economic activity among regions within the State, it is interesting to look at the pattern in relation to the EU28.  Figure 6 shows GVA in the State relative to the EU28 increased from 129% of the EU28 average in 2008 to 178% in 2017.  The Dublin region grew even more strongly (from 188.7 in 2008 to 262.3 in 2017).  The West, which was 95.7% of the EU28 average in 2008, peaked in 2012 at 107% of the EU28 average, but has since fallen back to 90%.

Figure 6: Index of GVA per person (Basic Prices) for each region and state 2008-2017, EU28=100

Source: CSO, 2019, County Incomes and Regional GDP, Table 11, MW & SW own calculations.

 

Similarly the Border region which was 79% of the EU average in 2008 had decreased to 64.3% in 2017.  Clearly these regions are not just falling behind in relation to the state average, they are also diverging from the EU average, which is a cause for concern.  As discussed in this post A Tale of Three Regions: GDP in the new NUTS2 Regions it also has implications for the status of the regions in relation to cohesion funding and the Border Midland and West NUTS2 region will revert to Transition Region status from 2021.

Conclusion

GDP is the key measure of a how region’s economy is doing and is one of the important indicators of regional wellbeing [iii].  But the data shows that divergence in regional GDP is increasing, with some regions are experiencing very rapid economic growth while others, especially those in the Western Region (the Border region and the West) along with the Midland region are experiencing more modest growth and even contraction.

Given the significant growth of the national economy this is an important time to address issues in lagging regions such as the infrastructure deficits and other structural economic issues and to incentivise regional employment growth and make it easier for new businesses to establish and existing enterprise to survive.

Regions are the drivers of modern economic systems and all regions have the potential to thrive and to contribute to the national economy. However, because success breeds success some regions do this more effectively than others. Less advantaged regions will benefit if policy is focused on ensuring that they too can reach their potential. With the economic upturn, regional policy must be prioritised, it is a waste of talent and opportunity not to realise all regions’ potential.  It is to be hoped that the Ireland 2040 project can achieve this.

 

Helen McHenry

 

[i] GDP is Gross Domestic Product, GDP and GVA are the same concept i.e. they measure the value of the goods and services (or part thereof) which are produced within a region or country. GDP is valued at market prices and hence includes taxes charged and excludes the value of subsidies provided. GVA at basic prices on the other hand excludes product taxes and includes product subsidies. See background notes 

[ii] Although the Midland Region has consistently one of the lowest GVA per person, and Dublin and the Mid East the highest, the fact that GVA is measured where it is produced and the population is counted where people reside, means that those commuting from the Midland region of Dublin and the Mid East are contributing to the GVA of that region (which is why for GDP per person Dublin and the Mid East are often shown as combined for per capita data), while they form part of the denominator in the Midland region, so increasing the GVA of one and reducing that in the other.

[iii] Discussions of GDP inevitably must also consider on the limitations of the statistic as a measure of economic development (see here ) but it is the key statistic used, despite shortcomings.  As Eurostat notes here GDP per capita does not provide an indication as to the distribution of wealth between different population groups in the same region, nor does it measure the income ultimately available to private households in a region

Posted in Disparity, Economy, Regional GDP, Regional policy, Regional Statistics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

200th WDC Insights blog post – Our Top 5!

It is hard to believe but this is our 200th post since the Policy Analysis team’s WDC Insights blog was first launched on 25th July 2014. Over the last (almost) five years and 200 posts we have addressed everything from labour market to climate change, broadband to county incomes, demography to electricity and much more in between.

We’ve tackled mysterious questions (Understanding rural transport statistics: Why are there so many new cars in county Roscommon?[1]) and pressing issues (Energy and Climate Action- the WDC View of the Draft National Plan); assessed the regional impacts of national trends (Leprechauns in Invisible Regions: Regional GVA (GDP) in 2015) and policies (WDC submission to Ireland 2040-Our Plan, the Draft National Planning Framework); analysed Census data (Census 2016: Housing In Ireland – What has been happening in the Western Region?) and explained changing statistical classifications (Nuts about NUTS!). And of course there’s our annual Christmas Quiz!

So of our 200 posts so far, what have been the most popular…?

Number 5: How are we doing?  GDP of Irish Regions in 2014

From April 2017, How are we doing?  GDP of Irish Regions in 2014 by Dr Helen McHenry is among our annual posts analysing CSO data on county incomes and regional GDP.  The analysis in this post showed the increasing dominance of Dublin and the South West in terms of their combined share of national GDP, with the share accounted for by other regions reducing over time, a trend that has continued.

Number 4: Preliminary Results of Census 2016 for Co Roscommon

Presenting our analysis to stakeholders is a key part of the work of the WDC’s Policy Analysis team and Preliminary Results of Census 2016 for Co Roscommon, from December 2016, summarised the main points from a presentation by Pauline White to the Roscommon Local Community Development Committee (LCDC). It outlined the key preliminary Census results for the county on population and the components of change.  Of course, these results have since been superseded by the final Census results, but it seems fitting this is in our Top 5 given that Roscommon is the WDC’s ‘home’.

Number 3: What is Rural?

It might seem like a simple question, but the popularity of this post by Dr Helen McHenry from October 2017 shows that defining What is Rural? is far more complex that you might think. The post explores differing definitions of ‘rural’ used by the CSO, the National Planning Framework and the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas. It concludes by asking if we need ‘rural policy’ or policy for people living in rural areas?

Number 2: Census 2016: Rurality, Population Density and the Urban Population of the Western Region

Examining the population living in rural areas (using the CSO definition!), population density across western counties and the population of towns in the region, Census 2016: Rurality, Population Density and the Urban Population of the Western Region from May 2017 provides a handy overview of the distribution of the region’s population.  It highlights that the region’s highly rural nature, with a dispersed population and a large number of small and medium-sized towns, has important implications for the delivery of services and infrastructure to residents of the Western Region.

And finally …

Number 1: Balanced regional development – What does it mean?

In our most popular post (by a long way!) Balanced regional development – What does it mean? Deirdre Frost explored the differing definitions and uses of this much used (and abused?) term.  Written in May 2015, when the initial discussions were underway for the National Planning Framework, as a successor to the National Spatial Strategy, it concluded … ‘When considering a new national planning framework which aims to deliver balanced regional development, deciding and agreeing what we actually mean by balanced regional development and how we measure it would be a useful starting point which might ultimately ensure a greater chance of success.’   Whether the final NPF actually achieved this clarity is perhaps a topic for a future post …

So, 200 posts done and we are looking forward to the next 200.  We hope you have found (at least some of) them useful and of interest.  If you have, forward them to your friends!  And if there are any issues you think we should cover in future posts, just let us know policyanalysis[at]wdc.ie

All the best

Pauline, Deirdre & Helen

[1] The answer’s here

Posted in Census, NPF & RSES, Regional Development, Regional policy, Regional Statistics, Rural Development, Settlements | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services rely on local demand from businesses & consumers, but potential to expand international activity

The Western Development Commission (WDC) has just published the latest in its series of Regional Sectoral Profiles which analyse employment and enterprise data for economic sectors in the Western Region.  This report examines the Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services sector, and two publications are available:

This sector includes three sub-sectors which provide services to both businesses and individuals:

  • ‘Administrative & Support Services’ primarily provide ‘outsourced’ type business services (property management and landscaping, contract cleaning, ‘back office’ business processing/call centres, recruitment, leasing and security) but it also includes travel agents and tour operators;
  • ‘Arts, Entertainment & Recreation’ (creative arts, cinemas, gyms, sports activities, amusements, museums and gambling); and
  • ‘Other Services’ (hairdressing and beauty, laundry, repair services, funeral services, unions and business groups and domestic staff) mainly provide services to individuals and households.

Given the wide scope of this sector, it is particularly important to consider differences across the sub-sectors. Some of the key findings from the analysis are:

Sector plays a smaller role in Western Region’s labour market

Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services account for a smaller share of total jobs in the region than nationally (Fig. 1); 6.5% of total employment compared with 7.5%.  Large urban centres and global business services activity around Shannon influence its relative importance across western counties.

The region experienced lower jobs growth in this sector than elsewhere between 2011 and 2016 (8.9% compared with 13.6%).  As this sector relies heavily on local demand, slower economic recovery in the region was a factor in this.  Nevertheless as this sector grew more than total jobs in the region (7.5%), it contributed to the region’s jobs recovery.

Fig. 1: Percentage of total employment in Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services in Western Region and state 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011

High and growing self-employment

This sector in the region is characterised by a high rate of self-employment, both compared with elsewhere (27.6% in region v 21.5% in state) and with other sectors. This is particularly the case in more rural counties and for locally provided services (38.1% of all employment in ‘Other Services’ is self-employment).

The number of self-employed in this sector in the region increased by 19.4% (2011-2016), the highest growth across all sectors, as many individuals responded to growing demand by setting up small-scale service businesses (e.g. gyms, barbers, HR services, phone repair).  Continuation of existing, and the development of new initiatives and soft supports, to support self-employment, including addressing issues of the quality and viability of some self-employment, is important particularly in smaller urban centres and rural areas where self-employment can be a key pathway to work.

Important contribution to town centre renewal

As online retailing grows, the availability and choice of local personal and recreational services is central to attracting people to visit and remain in town centre locations.  Facilitating such services, many of which are provided by sole traders and micro-enterprises, should be integral to local plans for town centre renewal.

At 11.2% of all employment Bundoran has the highest share working in this sector of Ireland’s 200 towns and cities (1,500+ population), largely due to ‘Arts, Entertainment & Recreation’ (Fig. 2).  Carndonagh (10.4%) and Ballyshannon (10.2%) are also in the top 10 towns in Ireland.  Shannon meanwhile has the second highest share working in ‘Administrative & Support’ in the state.

Fig. 2: Percentage of total employment in Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services in towns in the Western Region, 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016: Profile 11 – Employment, Occupations and Industry, Table EB030

The structure of the sector in the region differs from the national picture

The mainly locally traded personal and leisure services are more important for employment in the region, with less activity in business services (Fig. 3).  The single largest employment activity is ‘Hairdressing & Beauty’ which is significantly more important in the region than the state, the next largest is ‘Services to buildings & landscape’, followed by ‘Sport, amusement & recreation’. The greater importance of locally provided services means the sector relies more heavily on local demand and disposable income.

Fig. 3: Percentage of total Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services employment in each broad sub-sector in Western Region and state, 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011

Some of the implications of this are:

  • ‘Administrative & Support’ less developed but with growth potential: The ‘Administrative & Support’ sub-sector accounts for a lower share of total employment (see Fig. 3) and enterprises (33.5% of all AEOS enterprises v 35.8%) in the region than the state and also experienced lower growth. There is an opportunity to further develop this sector in response to increased outsourcing and strong growth in global business services.  High quality communications infrastructure and property solutions, as well as improved accessibility and the availability of suitable talent are important factors.  Within the region the Shannon Free Zone is a nationally significant location for global business services (e.g. aircraft leasing, e-commerce outsourcing).  Strengthening this cluster to adapt to technological change, meet emerging skill needs and increase collaboration are among the actions needed to support this key regional asset.
  • Local ‘Other Services’ more important and in particular for rural counties: These services largely rely on local demand and respond strongly to disposable income.  As they are often consumed at the same location as they are supplied (e.g. hairdressing, dry-cleaning, nail bars), they play a particularly important role in the local economy of towns and villages.   This sector however is generally quite low paid (at €17.13 per hour ‘Other Services’ has the second lowest average hourly earnings of all economic sectors.[1])  The greater importance of this sub-sector in the employment profile of the region therefore reduces the overall economic benefit of the sector to the regional economy.
  • Role of ‘Arts, Entertainment & Recreation’ in the regional economy is growing: It experienced the strongest employment (13.6%, 2011-2016) and enterprise (12.6%, 2011-2016) growth in the region, in both cases expanding more than nationally. This sector is highly responsive to local disposable income with tourism a key driver. This is clear from its importance in locations such as Bundoran, Strandhill and Clifden.  The Western Region is recognised as having a strong creative and cultural industries sector, as well as tourism industry. The WDC has supported the creative sector’s development through a range of initiatives[2] and the recent Regional Enterprise Plan for the West region[3] included it among its strategic objectives. Adopting a coordinated approach is critical to help realise the growth potential of the creative industries.

For more detailed analysis, including of enterprises in the sector and agency assisted jobs, download Administrative, Entertainment & Other Services in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile here

Pauline White

[1] Only ‘Accommodation & Food Service’ is lower. CSO, Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey Q4 2018, Table EHQ03

[2] See https://www.wdc.ie/regional-development/creative-economy/

[3] Department of Business, Enterprise & Innovation (2019), Regional Enterprise Plan to 2020: West Region

 

Posted in Economic Sectors, Employment, Enterprise, Regional Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Smaller Labour Catchments across the Western Region

Travel to Work Areas and Labour Catchments

Analysis of travel to work data can be used to identify the geographic catchment from which a town draws its workforce, otherwise known as its labour catchment. Measurement of labour markets based on Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) has been well established in the UK for many years, helping to inform various public policies ranging from employment to transport provision. Companies and large employers use TTWAs to help identify optimal locations to access labour supply.

The use of TTWAs is less well established in Ireland, and where used has largely been focussed on the larger cities especially Dublin. There has generally been little focus on labour catchments in other centres or more rural regions.

The Western Development Commission (WDC) has worked with the All Island Research Observatory (AIRO) to examine the labour catchments of towns across the Western Region based on Census of Population data 2006 and 2016. The town labour catchments show that area from which a town draws most of its labour supply; each catchment is based on the inclusions of Electoral Divisions (EDs) that are assigned to a town, based on commuting to work flows.

Last year the WDC published the findings on the labour catchments of the principal towns of the seven counties of the Western Region (Galway, Ennis, Sligo, Letterkenny, Castlebar, Roscommon and Carrick-on-Shannon). The full report Travel to Work and Labour Catchments in the Western Region, A Profile of Seven Town Labour Catchments is available for download here (14.2MB). Each of the individual town reports are also available to download separately (Galway City, Sligo Town, Ennis,  Letterkenny, Castlebar, Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon).

The WDC is now publishing the findings of the other smaller catchments across the Western Region. This is the first time such detailed labour market analyses have been undertaken for the smaller centres across the Western Region. These data and findings can inform local and regional economic development and help support appropriate policies to ensure optimal local and regional development.

Smaller Catchments

The WDC identifies 26 labour catchments, which complement the 7 labour catchments of the principal towns in each of the counties which were published in 2018, see above.

In these 26 publications, the WDC draws on Census 2016 POWCAR (Place of Work Census of Anonymised Records) data to examine the travel to work patterns in centres with a population greater than 1,000 across the Western Region.

These 26 smaller catchments provide insights into the travel to work patterns of workers living there which are then used to generate labour catchments which show the geographic area from which each town draws most of its workers. Each town’s labour catchment has many more workers living there than the Census measure of the town’s resident workforce and it is a better measure of labour supply. This is particularly useful when considering employment and investment decisions.

Socio-economic profiles

Each of the reports identify the place of work of the resident workforce and provides detailed analysis of the socio-economic profile of workers providing information on age, gender, education levels, and sector of employment. There are comparisons with the rest of the Western Region and the State Average. There is also trend analyses indicating the extent of change between 2006 and 2016.

For ease of presentation the 26 smaller catchment reports are presented by County. Below are links to each of the 26 reports. In practice labour catchments extend across county boundaries, indeed that is one of the rationales for considering labour catchments rather than administrative boundaries; people travel to work regardless of county boundaries and these patterns and catchments provide a better evidence base for informing policy.

Some key points include:

  • Labour Supply: All the town labour catchments have significantly more people at work than the Census population at work for that town and have therefore access to a larger labour supply than normal Census definitions would indicate.
  • Profile of ‘Rural’ employment: The profile of employment in these smaller centres provide important insights into ‘rural’ employment, which is much are complex and varied than the perception of rural as largely agricultural employment.
  • Trends: Changes over time, in both place of work and the socio-economic characteristics of workers indicate little change in the geography of labour catchments but much change in the profile of resident workers, most notably in their age and education levels.

County Clare

The two labour catchments within Co. Clare have both recorded an increase in workers resident in the catchments. The Shannon labour catchment is concentrated around the Shannon Free Zone and Shannon Airport and is geographically compact. The Kilrush labour catchment is more extensive and now incorporates a previously separate Kilkee labour catchment. In both there is evidence of longer distances travelled to work than previously.

County Donegal

There are 8 smaller catchments located within Co. Donegal, reflecting the large size of the county, its geography with an extensive border both with Northern Ireland and the sea, and the relatively small size of some of the catchments.

Of the 8 labour catchments, 5 recorded a decline in the number of resident workers in the decade between 2006 and 2016. The three that recorded an increase in resident workers are Donegal, Dungloe and Carndonagh,  illustrating that some more remote areas are experiencing growth.

Each report identifies the top 10 work destinations for residents living in each labour catchment and the extent of cross border commuting is presented.

County Galway

There are 4 smaller catchments located within Co. Galway and just one, Gort labour catchment, recorded a decrease in the number of workers living there over the decade 2006-2016. Clifden, Tuam and Loughrea labour catchments recorded increases of varying degrees. The data presented also shows the extent of commuting between catchments, for example from Tuam, Loughrea and Gort labour catchments to Galway city.

County Leitrim

Apart from the county town labour catchment of Carrick-on-Shannon, there is just one smaller catchment located within Co. Leitrim, namely Manorhamilton. The number of resident workers in the Manorhamilton labour catchment increased over the ten year period and there is data to show more people are now working in Manorhamilton . The influence of some key employers is evident. Data on dross border commuting is also presented.

County Mayo

There are 8 smaller catchments located within Co. Mayo. Just two of the eight recorded a decline in the numbers of resident workers between the period of 2006 and 2016, these were Belmullet and the Charlestown/Knock Airport catchment. The other 6 recorded increases of varying degrees from 31% increase in the Westport labour catchment to an increase of 2.4% for the Ballina labour catchment. The most important places of work across each catchment are presented along with the labour market profiles of workers living there.

County Roscommon

There are 3 smaller catchments located within Co. Roscommon. All 3 recorded a decline in the numbers of workers resident there. In the case of Boyle and Ballaghaderreen, the geographic size of the labour catchments also decreased slightly. The data presented show the sectors in which people worked, the extent to which people worked inside the town and those who worked outside the town but within the wider catchment and the changes over the 10 years. Across all catchments there is a very significant increase in the level of third level education among the workforce.

 

Deirdre Frost

Posted in Census, Economic Sectors, Employment, Infrastructure, Population, Regional Development, Regional Statistics, Settlements | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Changing times! Looking back twenty years in the Western Region

The Western Development Commission (WDC) recently published its strategy for the next five years 2019-2024 ‘Work Smarter Live Better’.  It was launched in Ballinasloe on 15th April, and that launch provided us with an opportunity to look back at how the seven county Western Region has changed since the WDC was set up.

The WDC was established by the Western Development Commission Act in 1998 so it is interesting to consider the changes experienced by the Region since the WDC came into being.  As the seven counties (Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon, Galway and Clare) which make up the Western Region (the area under the remit of the WDC) do not align with other statistical regions for data collection, the best Western Region data comes from sources which publish data by county, such as the Census of Population, which allow us to combine county data to get statistics for the Western Region.  Comparing the Censuses of 1996 and 2016 gives a good picture of change in the Region over two decades.  It is not often we look back so far but it is a useful exercise, highlighting how much has changed in twenty years.

In this post I briefly consider changes in population and demographics, labour force, employment, and finally, income.  There are many other areas which merit examination which will be covered in a future post.

 

The Western Region population.

Looking first at population change, in 1996 the population of the Western Region was 657,231.  By 2016 after a very significant 26.1% increase, it was 828,697.   Different counties grew at very different rates, showing (Figure 1) the uneven rates of development and change.

The largest population growth in the period was in Galway, which grew by more than a third (36%) and the smallest population growth was in Mayo (17%) and Sligo (17.4%).

Figure 1: Population Change in Western Region counties 1996-2016

Source: CSO Statbank E2001: Population at Each Census 1841 to 2016 by County, Sex and Census Year

 

Demographic change

The make up of the population has also changed over that period.  In 1996 13.7% of the Western Region population was over 65 and 3.3% was over 80.  By 2016, 15.4% were over 65 and over 65 and 3.7% over 80.

More significant changes occurred in the younger age categories, in 1996 24% were under 15 while 41% were under 25 and by 2016 this had changed to 21.1% under 15 and 33% under 25.

 

Employment and the Labour Force

The labour force has grown even more significantly than the population.  There were 266,102 in the labour force in the region in 1996 and this had grown to 387,770 by 2016, a 46% increase.  The percentage of the population (aged 15-65) in the labour force was 53.5% in 1996 and had increased to 59.3% by 2016.  This increase is largely the result of higher female participation and also reflects the changing age demographic.

Skills have also changed considerably.  In 1996 in the Western Region only 16.7% had a third level qualification but by 2016 39.2% did.

My colleague Pauline White is currently undertaking a detailed analysis of employment by sector in the region and has published on six sectors.  Looking at key Western Region sectors, the significant changes in employment are noted  here.

In 1996 15.6% were employed in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and by 2016 only 6.8% were.  Similarly, in 1996 19% of those in employment worked in Industry, and in 2016 13.7% did.  In contrast, in 1996 40.1% were employed in Services but by 2016 67% were.

Incomes

Finally, although the data discussed so far is from the Census of Population it is useful to consider how income has changed over the same period.  In 1996 Household Disposable Income per person was €15,032 in the Western Region (2016 prices) and by 2016 it had risen to €22,689 an increase of 51% over that period.  However, in 1996 Western Region disposable income per person was 89.2% of the State average, but by 2016 it had fallen to 83.5% of the state average.  Clearly the improvements in income have been greater in other parts of Ireland.

 

Conclusion

This short post has provided a useful reminder of how things have changed in the Western Region in the period since the WDC was set up.  A future post will focus on spatial changes in infrastructure and where people live.  Looking back, the changes that have taken place over the 20 year period examined have seemed dramatic, though many of them have taken place gradually.  It is interesting to contemplate how things will change between 2016 and 2036 but, unless the retirement age increases even more, I won’t be around to blog about them.  And perhaps blogging won’t be around either.

 

Helen McHenry

Posted in Economic Sectors, Population, Regional Development, Regional Statistics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

1 in 4 working in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing in Ireland live in Western Region – region’s highest share across all sectors

The WDC has just published the sixth of its ‘Regional Sectoral Profiles’ analysing employment data for the Western Region on different economic sectors.  The latest looks at Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and two publications are available:

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing is a complex sector which plays many economic, societal and environmental roles.  This analysis only examines direct employment of those whose main economic activity is working in the sector, as reported in the Census.  It does not include persons who farm part-time but have another ‘main’ job or are retired.  It includes people working on farms, fishing vessels, aquaculture farms, forestry and stables but not in agri-food processing.[1]

Of everyone working in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing in Ireland, 25.5% of them live in the Western Region, far higher than the region’s 16.6% share of total national employment.  Of all economic sectors, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing is where the Western Region accounts for its highest share of total national employment.

Employment in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

According to Census 2016, 22,733 people were employed in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing in the Western Region and it is the region’s sixth largest employment sector.[2]  The restructuring of Ireland’s economy towards services activity and high value manufacturing, as well as intensification and increased agricultural productivity, has substantially reduced the significance of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’s as a source of full-time employment (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Percentage of total employment in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing in Western Region and state, 1996-2016

Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011; CSO, Census of Population 2006, Volume 7 – Principal Economic Status and Industries, Table C0713; CSO, Census of Population 2002, Volume 5 – Principal Economic Status and Industries, Table B0513; CSO, Census of Population 1996, Volume 5 – Principal Economic Status and Industries, Table A0513

The downward trend was reversed somewhat in 2011 as there was an increase in the number of people working in the sector between 2006 and 2011.  Massive construction job losses meant that some part-time farmers, who had been working in the building industry, reverted to full-time farming.  Also, job losses elsewhere in the economy increased the relative importance of this sector.  2016 saw a return to the downward trend.

This sector has consistently accounted for a higher share of employment in the region than nationally over the past two decades.  While the region and state followed similar patterns, the gap narrowed.  In 1996 the share of total employment accounted for by Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing in the region was 6.4 percentage points higher than in the state (15.6% compared with 9.2%) by 2016 the gap had narrowed to 2.4 percentage points (6.8% compared with 4.4%).

At a county level, in 2016 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing was most important in Roscommon (9%), followed closely by Leitrim (8.6%) and Mayo (8.5%).  All other western counties have around 7% working in the sector and are considerably above the national average.[1]

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sub-sectors

Census data on employment in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing is sub-divided into six separate activities.  For ease of interpretation, these have been combined here into four sub-sectors.  ‘Animals & Mixed Farming’ dominates and accounts for 88.6% of total employment in the sector in the region, a notably higher share than nationally (82.6%) (Fig. 2).  This sub-sector dominates in all counties, particularly Clare and Sligo and is least important for Donegal.

Fig. 2: Percentage of total Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing employment in each sub-sector in Western Region and state, 2016

Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011.
Due to the low numbers involved, Galway City is not included in the chart, but is included in the Western Region total.

‘Tillage, Horseracing & Other Farming’ accounts for a small share in the region (5.1%), less than half its share nationally (12.6%), reflecting the Western Region’s reliance on cattle and sheep farming.  ‘Forestry & Logging’ is the smallest in the region (2.6%).  At 6.4%, Leitrim is where ‘Forestry & Logging’ is most important to employment.

The role of ‘Fishing & Aquaculture’ in Donegal’s economy is clear.  It accounts for 14.3% of total Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing employment in the county (567 people) with Killybegs likely the main location.  Galway County (2.4%) and Mayo (2.2%) are the only other western counties with a notable share working in this activity.  The Western Region makes a very substantial contribution to this sector and is home to 43% of national ‘Fishing & Aquaculture’ jobs.[1]

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing related occupations

People working in this sector are engaged in a range of different occupations.  In 2016, there were 24,014 people in the Western Region who reported themselves with an Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing related occupation[2] (Table 1).

The vast majority (86.9% in the Western Region) of those in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing related occupations are farmers.[3]  At 20,880, farmers are the Western Region’s second largest single occupational group.  They dominate in all counties, most strongly Clare, Sligo, Roscommon and Galway County.  Donegal is where they account for their smallest share (76.2%) due to the strength of the fishing industry.

Table 1: Percentage in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing related occupations in Western Region and state, 2016

Source: CSO, Census 2016: Profile 11 – Employment, Occupations and Industry, Table EB049.
Due to the low numbers involved (181 in total) Galway City is not included in the table but is included in the Western Region total.

The next largest is ‘Elementary Agricultural’ which includes unskilled occupations.  These are most important in Donegal (11.2%), with a high proportion of both farm and fishing workers.  Leitrim has the next highest share (9.3%) mainly due to forestry workers.  ‘Other Skilled Agricultural & Related Trades’ is also most important in Donegal is (11.8%) almost entirely due to skilled fishing trades, Galway County is next highest (4.3%) and for the same reason.

Conclusion

Despite declines, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing continues to play a larger role in the region’s labour market and any changes in the sector would have a greater employment impact in the region and its rural areas in particular.  The sector is highly exposed to Brexit and it is vital that the issues and needs of this sector in the Western Region, characterised by smaller scale operations, is addressed in Brexit adaptation efforts.

The Western Region plays a strategic role in Ireland’s Fishing & Aquaculture sector.  Ireland’s seafood sector has shown strong recent growth, predominantly export-led.  Brexit however poses many challenges and addressing these will be vital to future jobs growth in this sector.  The region’s forestry resource is a valuable asset, supplying the construction industry with quality product.  The region is also well placed to further develop a wood energy sector using by-products to stimulate local job creation as well as increase renewable energy use.

Future changes in the pattern and activities carried out by the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector, as a result of climate change mitigation and transition to a low carbon economy, could have significant positive and/or negative impacts on employment.  The nature and scale of such impacts is currently unclear however and will be one of the most important factors influencing this sector’s long term future.

For more, download Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Employment in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile and WDC Insights: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Employment in the Western Region here

Pauline White

[1] This regional strength is also reflected in the region’s 47.6% share of national employment in seafood processing, see WDC (2019), Industry in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile

[2] This differs from the number working in the sector because unemployed persons are included in occupations data (under their last employment) but not in employment data, some people working in these occupations may work in another sector (e.g. a horticulturalist working for a landscaping company) and some people working in this sector may have different occupations (e.g. a bookkeeper at an aquaculture farm).

[3] See this WDC Insights blogpost ‘How many farmers are in the Western Region?’ for a discussion of different definitions and ways to measure the number of ‘farmers’.

[1] At 0.5% of total employment (163 people), Galway City is an exception.  Given the low numbers involved, Galway City will be excluded from much of the following analysis but it is included in the figures for the Western Region as a whole.

[1] Agri-food processing forms part of the Industry sector and was examined in a previous Regional Sectoral Profile, WDC (2019), Industry in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile https://www.wdc.ie/publications/reports-and-papers/

[2] These are people who recorded in the Census that their main employment was in this sector.  Therefore someone who farms/fishes part-time but has another job (which they recorded as their ‘main’ employment) would not be included.

Posted in Agriculture, Census, Economic Sectors, Employment, Regional Statistics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Travel to Work Areas and Border Labour Catchments

The WDC will present analysis on Travel to Work Areas (TTWAS) and the smaller labour catchments located along the Border at a conference in Derry, organised by NERI on 1st May see here for more details.

This work is part of a larger piece of work examining the smaller labour catchments across the Western Region which in turn is part of the WDC programme of research on Travel to Work Areas and Labour Catchments which has been a key element of the WDC Policy Analysis work programme for the last 10 years.

The work on smaller labour catchments follows on from the WDC report published in 2018, Travel to Work and Labour Catchments in the Western Region, A Profile of Seven Town Labour Catchments (2018). This provides a detailed labour market profile of the principal towns in each of the seven counties of the Western Region, based on travel to work patterns, namely: Galway, Ennis, Sligo, Letterkenny, Castlebar, Roscommon and Carrick-on-Shannon and is available for download here. (14.2MB)

The map below illustrates all the labour catchments across the Western Region, arising from the analysis of Census 2016 data.

Map 1 Labour Catchments across the Western Region 2016

The analysis of smaller labour catchments reviews the remaining 26 complete labour catchments contained within the Western Region and the 26 reports will be published shortly. Here is a sneak preview of some findings and points of interest.

The 26 complete smaller labour catchments are distributed across each of the counties of the Western Region as the table below shows.

Table 1 The 26 smaller Labour Catchments in Western Region Counties, 2016

 

The smaller labour catchments range in size from the largest, Ballina in Co. Mayo with 9,034 resident workers, to the smallest, Charlestown-Bellahy with 962 resident workers.

Each labour catchments has a greater number of workers living there compared to the figure reported in the Census for the town at its core, indicating a greater labour supply available than might otherwise be considered.

Of the 26 smaller labour catchments 15 reported an increase in numbers over the 10 year period from 2006 to 2016, while 11 of the smaller labour catchments reported a decline in numbers over the same period.

Generally, those that reported a decline are somewhat remote, for example five of those that reported a decline are located in Co. Donegal, namely, Ballybofey-Stranorlar, Buncrana, Killybegs, Bunbeg and Ballyshannon. Belmullet in west Mayo also recorded a decline in the number of resident workers living there over the 10 year period. A further four catchments in east Mayo/Roscommon reported a decline; namely Charlestown, Ballaghaderreen, Boyle and Castlerea, while Gort in co. Galway also had a decline in resident workers living there over the 10 year intercensal period.

In the case of the labour catchments in Co. Donegal, the larger labour catchments of Donegal town and Letterkenny, both recorded an increase over the period indicating move from the smaller more rural catchments in the county to the larger centres and this in part accounts for the changes.

For the centres in Mayo and Roscommon which reported a decline in numbers, some of this can be accounted for by growth in adjacent centres such as Castlebar and Carrick-on-Shannon but further analysis is needed to explain the changes in detail.

There is also some evidence of greater levels of longer distance commuting to Dublin and other locations, for example, the numbers travelling from the larger catchments of Galway city, Sligo and Ennis to work in Dublin has more than doubled over the 10 year period. This trend is likely to be evident for the smaller centres also.

However, it is also true that rural areas remain very important places of work. Across many of the 26 labour catchments the second most important place of work after the town itself is the rural parts of the county. Smaller centres and rural areas are very important employment centres and the analysis will show that this employment extends across sectors such as Education, health and Social Work, Manufacturing and Wholesale, Retail and Commerce.

Further detail will be available following the presentation at the NERI conference and will be posted here

Deirdre Frost

 

Posted in Census, Economic Sectors, Employment, Enterprise, Population, Regional Development, Regional policy, Regional Statistics, Rural Development, Settlements | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment