Preliminary Results of Census 2016 for Co Roscommon

On Thursday 8 December, the WDC made a presentation to a meeting of Roscommon Local Community Development Committee (LCDC) on its analysis of the Preliminary Results of Census 2016 which were published recently in a WDC report and also a summary WDC Insights. The presentation focused on the findings for county Roscommon and can be downloaded here.

Roscommon’s Population

The overall pattern of Roscommon’s population over the longer term was substantial population loss from Famine times until the early 1970s (Fig. 1). There was then a period of marginal growth up to the mid-80s when again there was some population loss.  The period 2002-2011 saw the county experience strong population growth, flattening out in the most recent period.  Between 2011 and 2016 the county’s population only grew by 0.6%, the second lowest growth nationally just above county Leitrim (though it should be noted three counties had population loss). The county’s population now stands at 64,436.

Fig. 1: Population of county Roscommon, 1841-2016. Source: CSO, Preliminary Results Census 2016 http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016preliminaryreport/

Fig. 1: Population of county Roscommon, 1841-2016. Source: CSO, Preliminary Results Census 2016 http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016preliminaryreport/

Sub-county patterns

Even though the county as a whole had the second lowest population growth nationally there was considerable variation within the county. The county is divided into four districts (Table 1).  One of these, Athlone No. 2 rural area (part of Athlone that is within County Roscommon) showed strong population growth, just below the state average (3.7%).  In contrast the Castlereagh (Castlerea) district in the north west of the county experienced substantial decline of -3.2% with the Boyle district only growing marginally.

There is a clear north/south difference in terms of the county’s population performance, which is linked to employment and economic growth patterns as well as closeness to larger urban centres.  It is interesting to note that the areas of county Roscommon with the poorest population performance are those that border Mayo and Sligo, both of which experienced population decline over the period, and Leitrim which had even lower population growth than Roscommon.

Table 1: Population in 2016 and percentage change in population 2011-2016 in four rural districts of County Roscommon

Rural Districts 2016 2011-2016

% change

Athlone No. 2 rural area 16,547 3.5
Boyle No. 1 rural area 10,271 0.3
Castlereagh rural area 15,043 -3.2
Roscommon rural area 22,575 1.3

Source: CSO, Preliminary Results Census 2016 http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016preliminaryreport/

Of the 112 Electoral Divisions (EDs) in county Roscommon, just over half (60) showed population decline, while 50 grew and 2 remained unchanged between 2011 and 2016.  Of those that declined, 28 declined by over 5%.  Of those that grew, 19 grew by over 5%.  The top 5 EDs in terms of both population growth and population decline are set out in Table 2.

Table 2: Top 5 EDs in county Roscommon by population increase and by population decrease

Population 2011 (Number) Population 2016 (Number) Actual change 2011-2016 (Number) Percentage change

2011-2016 (%)

TOP 5 EDS BY POPULATION INCREASE
049 Oakport 319 414 95 29.8
041 Kilcolagh 126 148 22 17.5
063 Carrowduff 203 236 33 16.3
078 Bumlin 408 472 64 15.7
112 Tulsk 279 315 36 12.9
TOP 5 EDS BY POPULATION DECREASE
051 Rushfield 425 371 -54 -12.7
070 Fairymount 359 313 -46 -12.8
080 Cloonfinlough 201 173 -28 -13.9
025 Altagowlan 57 49 -8 -14
077 Ballygarden 220 176 -44 -20

Source: CSO, Preliminary Results Census 2016 http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016preliminaryreport/

Components of population change

The overall population change in county Roscommon between 2011 and 2016 was +371. This resulted from a natural increase of+1,642 minus estimated net migration of -1,271.  As the loss of population due to migration was very close to the gains from natural growth, the overall change in population was small.

Natural increase of a county is influenced by both its birth and death rates. The average annual birth rate in county Roscommon per 1,000 population between 2011 and 2016 was 12.9. That is, on average 12.9 babies were born each year for every 1,000 population.  This was the fourth lowest birth rate nationally, with only Cork city, Kerry and Donegal lower. The state average was 14.8.

The county’s average annual death rate per 1,000 population was 7.8.  This was the seventh highest nationally and above the state average of 6.3. The combination of a relatively low birth rate and relatively high death rate reduces the contribution of natural increase to population growth. Roscommon had the fourth lowest annual rate of natural increase in the state.

Roscommon performed better in terms of migration however.  Net migration measures the difference between the number moving into the county and the number moving out.  Roscommon’s annual average net migration rate per 1,000 population was -4 (Fig 2).   While this was greater than the state average of -1.2, there were nine other local authority areas with even greater negative migration rates. Within the Western Region, only Galway county and city exceeded Roscommon’s performance.

Fig. 2: Estimated average annual net migration rate by local authority area, 2011-2016. Source: CSO, Preliminary Results Census 2016 http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016preliminaryreport/

Fig. 2: Estimated average annual net migration rate by local authority area, 2011-2016. Source: CSO, Preliminary Results Census 2016 http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016preliminaryreport/

Conclusion

The Preliminary Results provide initial indications of the demographic trends within county Roscommon during the past five years.  Full details are available in the presentation which can be downloaded here.  This was a period characterised by a general upturn in the national economy, within Roscommon it can be seen that substantial variation exists between the experience of the north and south of the county.

The full Census results, which will be issued next year between April and December, will give a fuller impression of how a highly rural county such as Roscommon has performed in this period and most interestingly the spatial patterns and differences within the county.

Pauline White & Helen McHenry

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About WDC Insights

WDC Insights is the blog of the Western Development Commission Policy Analysis Team. The WDC Policy Analysis team analyses regional and rural issues, suggests solutions to regional difficulties and provides a regional perspective on national policy objectives. Policy Analysis Team Members are: Deirdre Frost, Helen McHenry and Pauline White. We will all be posting here. You can contact us here, or use our firstnamelastname at wdc.ie Follow us on Twitter @WDCInsights
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